Moments

Moments

Given a random variable \(X\):

  • The \(k\) -th moment of \(X\) is
\[E[X^k] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} x^k f(x) dx.\]
  • The \(k\) -th central moment of \(X\) is
\[\mu_k = E\left[\left(X-E[X]\right)^k\right] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \left(x-E[X]\right)^k f(x) dx.\]

Moments

Some special cases for any random variable \(X\):

  • The first moment of \(X\) is its mean.
  • The first central moment of \(X\) is zero.
  • The second central moment of \(X\) is its variance.

Sample Moments

Given realizations \(x_1, \ldots, x_n\) of a random variable \(X\),

  • The moments of \(X\) can be approximated by replacing expectations with simple averages:
\[\hat{\mu}_k = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n (x_i - \bar{x})^k, \,\,\,\,\,\, \text{where} \,\,\,\,\,\, \bar{x} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n x_i.\]
  • For example, the sample variance is
\[\hat{\mu}_2 = \hat{\sigma}^2 = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n (x_i - \bar{x})^2.\]

Skewness

Skewness measures the degree of asymmetry of a distribution.

  • Formally, skewness is defined as
\[Sk = E\left[\left(\frac{X - E[X]}{\sigma}\right)^3\right] = \frac{\mu_3}{\sigma^3}.\]
  • Zero skewness corresponds to a symmetric distribution.
  • Positive skewness indicates a relatively long right tail.
  • Negative skewness indicates a relatively long left tail.

Skewness Example

_images/skewExamples.png

This plot was taken directly from Ruppert (2011).

Kurtosis

Kurtosis measures the extent to which probability is concentrated in the center and tails of a distribution rather than the “shoulders”.

  • Formally, kurtosis is defined as
\[Kur = E\left[\left(\frac{X - E[Y]}{\sigma}\right)^4\right] = \frac{\mu_4}{\sigma^4}.\]
  • High values of kurtosis indicate heavy tails and low values indicate light tails.

Kurtosis

  • For skewed distributions, kurtosis may measure both asymmetry and tail weight.
  • For symmetric distributions, kurtosis only measures tail weight.

Kurtosis

The Kurtosis of a all normal distributions is 3.

  • Excess Kurtosis, \(Kur - 3\), is a measure of the kurtosis of a distribution relative to that of a normal.
  • If excess kurtosis is positive, the distribution has heavier tails than a normal.
  • If excess kurtosis is negative, the distribution has lighter tails than a normal.

Kurtosis of \(t\)-Distribution

Let \(t_{\nu}\) denote a random variable that has a \(t\)-distribution with \(\nu\) degrees of freedom.

  • The kurtosis of \(t_{\nu}\) exists only for \(\nu > 4\) and is equal to
\[Kur(t_{\nu}) = 3 + \frac{6}{\nu-4}.\]
  • So, for a \(t_5\)-distribution, the kurtosis is 9.
  • Clearly, as \(\nu \to \infty\), \(Kur(t_{\nu}) \to 3\), which is the kurtosis of a normal.
  • This makes sense because \(t_{\nu} \to \mathcal{N}(0,1)\) as \(\nu \to \infty\).

Kurtosis Example

_images/tNormComp.png

Sample Skewness and Kurtosis

Given realizations \(x_1, \ldots, x_n\) of a random variable \(X\), skewness and kurtosis can be approximated by

\[\widehat{SK} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \left(\frac{x_i - \bar{x}}{\hat{\sigma}}\right)^3\]
\[\widehat{Kur} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \left(\frac{x_i - \bar{x}}{\hat{\sigma}}\right)^4.\]

Sample Skewness and Kurtosis

Sample skewness and kurtosis can be used to diagnose normality.

  • However, sample skewness and kurtosis are heavily influenced by outliers.

Sample Skewness and Kurtosis

  • Consider a random sample of 999 values drawn from a \(\mathcal{N}(0,1)\) distribution.
  • The sample skewness and kurtosis are 0.0072 and 3.17, respectively.
  • These are close to the true values of 0 and 3.
  • If one outlier equal to 30 is added to the dataset, the sample skewness and kurtosis become 10.48 and 231.05, respectively.

Sample Skewness and Kurtosis

_images/outlierNormQQ.png

Location, Scale and Shape Parameters

  • A location parameter shifts a distribution to the right or left without changing the distribution’s variability or shape.
  • A scale parameter changes the variability of a distribution without changing its location or shape.
  • A parameter is a scale parameter if it increases by \(|a|\) when all data values are multiplied by \(a\).
  • A shape parameter is any parameter that is not changed by location and scale parameters.
  • Shape parameters dictate skewness and kurtosis.

Location, Scale and Shape Parameters

Examples of location, scale and shape parameters:

  • The mean or median of any distribution are location parameters.
  • The standard deviation (alternatively, variance) or median absolute deviation of any distribution are scale parameters.
  • The degrees of freedom parameter of a \(t\) distribution is a shape parameter.